USA List.. 6M-4.80M

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USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby dj » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:51 pm

hello

How about a list with "potential" (by 2016)… USA men 6M and USA women 4.80m jumpers..
List 5.. and tell me who can "run'…

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby altius » Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:38 pm

Angie Rummans is a real possibility of jumping 4.80 by 2016 -if not sooner. Some readers may recall that I predicted a great future for her three years ago win I found her as a beginner at a camp. Unfortunately she wasted two years but is now on track to fulfil her potential. We will see. And yes she can run!
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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby PV2020 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:39 am

I think there are a lot of coulda woulda shoulda's around. The problem are they USA guys with the known physical ability will be too old then.

Scott Roth has the physical presence and speed to do it as well as Chris Swanson who is still relatively new to the event but has gone 5.60 after not picking up the event until college (he technically has only been pole vaulting as long as a college senior that started jumping their freshman year of high school). The same way if Tommy Skipper would still be going, he was physically capable of being a 6m guy.

The USA has a ton of guys at that 5.60 to 5.72 range that are still just maturing or need to find the next step in their training to push them to the next level. Maybe a few of these guys will be ready to go in 2020?

The USA had 9 guys over 5.50 in the college system this year with a total of 20 over 5.40. That list also included two A standard guys so the young guys are doing well. I just think they need to hit 5.90 before they can hit 6.00.

I always still think Jacob Pauli has a 6.00 jump hidden away in him waiting to shock the world as well, but has just never really put together a season...

Oh but D.J. if you are just looking for speed... Logan Cunningham is the fastest 5.50 vaulter in the country.

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby dj » Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:47 pm

hey

thanks for the input.... hopefully we can get more ...

i'm looking for "some" success and some speed ability...

Tim Mack was at 9.3mps over the last 10/15 meters.. i would say that is a "low" minimum... Tim was 32.. again close to max for agee..

who do we have that can "match" those numbers... by 2016

those are the athletes that should get USATF's assistance... or some good coaching/opportunity assistance.

later

dj

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby ADTF Academy » Fri Oct 19, 2012 1:21 pm

A little Statistical Information of the 6 meter club.

FYI this is based off the data I could find at All-Athletics.com. There may have been meets not on their lists competed at by the athletes. Therefore these figures may in fact be on the low end and could be higher even higher. Also this information was compiled quickly and could be slightly off, but the basic point should be made.

Average years after their first 5.80 make was 3 years. Only one athlete didn't have a 5.80 before he jumped 6.00 it was 5.77. Longest delay was 8 years after by 3 athletes and most were under 3 years.

Average number of meets in the year they jumped 6.00 was 25 meets indoor and outdoor total. High was over 40 meets and low was 11 meets.

Average number of meets with a jump over 5.70 meters in year they went 6.00 was 16. Low was 7 and high was 25. The 7 was by the guy who only jumped in 11 recorded meets in the year he went 6.00. The percent of Jumps over 5.70 to meets competed was 63% by the 6.00 club in the year they did it.

Only Jeff Hartwig didn't make the World Championship type meet the year before going 6.00. However he did jump 5.80 to take 4th at the US Championships.

The year before their first 6.00 jump the average number of 5.70+ jumps was 11 meets. High was 17 meets and low was 3 meets that were recorded.


Looking at the data above I think we can have a better gauge of who could be the next 6.00 guy. For me it starts with who has a 5.80 and how long has it been since they did it? Who will jump in enough meets to get a chance and who can get more than 11 meets over 5.70 in that season. I think statistics and averages speak volumes. Do we have anyone not in the 6 meter club that can even come close to the consistency of these numbers.

Non 6.00 meter vaulters with a 5.80 PR. There is roughly 21 athletes that have a 5.80 pr in the last 7 years and only 7 within the last 3 years. Who will be the next 5.80 guy and can any of new new guys or recent 5.80 guys do it in under 3 years? Are they healthy enough to jump in enough meets to get a shot. Can they make the world team and get the consistency. Is there even enough high quality meets to get on a roll?

The US has 5 athletes who have jumped 5.80 in the last 8 years not on the 6 meter club. 4 are no longer jumping only Jeremy Scott remains but it was done outside the 3 year average window after first 5.80 plus he doesn't seem to be able to compete enough.

Under the circumstances listed above I don't think the US has anyone capable of jumping 6 meters as of today. Till we get more 5.80 guys and athletes/meets who compete on a regular basis I just don't see it possible anytime soon. As I say that I hope and will encourage everyone who is trying.

Best Options IMO

Mark Hollis: 5.75 PR, 23 meets in 2012, 0 over 5.70, No World Team, 1 5.70 in 2011
Jordan Scott 5.72 PR, 19 meets in 2012, 1 over 5.70, No World Team, 1 5.70 in 2011
Scott Roth: 5.72 PR, 11 meets in 2012, 0 over 5.70, World indoor Team, 1 5.70 in 2011

There are many other developmental guys, but I personally don't think we are jumping enough to gain the consistency and get the reps. Jordan and Mark are two of the higher competing guys and they didn't even match the number of meets shown as the average for the 6 meter club guys. Even Brad Walker who has come out to say you need to jump when ready actually jumped in over 27 meets the year he first jumped 6.00. Can anyone in 2013 jump over 5.70 near 11 times? By doing this it will give them the best chance to clear 6.00 meters in 2014. Till we have a guy who can do that the chances of another 6.00 meter guy for the US is low. We need more high quality opportunities to jump so they can grow in confidence and consistency. Tiny street meets with less than world class setups are not the answer.

Woman Coming next.
Last edited by ADTF Academy on Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby ADTF Academy » Fri Oct 19, 2012 1:30 pm

Woman's Data

A little Statistical Information of the 4.80 meter club.

FYI this is based off the data I could find at All-Athletics.com. There may have been meets not on their lists competed at by the athletes. Therefore these figures may in fact be on the low end and could be higher even higher. Also this information was compiled quickly and could be slightly off, but the basic point should be made.

Average years after their first 4.60 make was 2 years. Only one athlete didn't have a 4.60 before she jumped 4.80 it was 4.52. Longest delay was 6 years after and most were under 2 years.

Average number of meets in the year they jumped 4.80 was 21 meets indoor and outdoor total. High was over 27 meets and low was 17 meets.

Average number of meets with a jump over 4.50 meters in year they went 4.80 was 16. Low was 12 and high was 22. The percent of Jumps over 4.50 to meets competed was 76% by the 4.80 club in the year they did it.

The year before their first 4.80 jump the average number of 4.50+ jumps was 14 meets. High was 21 meets and low was 7 meets that were recorded. I didn't take into account Martina Strutz because she basically didn't compete the year before she went 4.80.


Looking at the data above I think we can have a better gauge of who could be the next 4.80 woman. For me it starts with who has a 4.60 and how long has it been since they did it? Who will jump in enough meets to get a chance and who can get more than 16 meets over 4.50 in that season. I think statistics and averages speak volumes. Do we have anyone not in the 4.80 meter club that can even come close to the consistency of these numbers. Also with the relative short life span of woman vaulters these could be understated as more woman reach 4.80 beyond 2-4 years in the future.

Non 4.80 meter vaulters with a 4.60 PR. There is roughly 23 athletes that have a 4.60 pr in the last 6 years with 15 of them in the last 3 years. Who will be the next 4.60 woman and can any of the new woman or those over 4.60 do it in under 3 years? Are they healthy enough to jump in enough meets to get a shot. Can they make the world team and get the consistency. Is there even enough high quality meets to get on a roll?

The US has 5 athletes who have jumped 4.60 in the last 6 years not on the 4.80 meter club. They are all still jumping as of today.

I do think all 5 of these woman have a chance at clearing 4.80, but the window on three of them is closing.

Best Options IMO

Jacy Jansen: 4.66 PR, 13 meets in 2012, 5 over 4.50, Both World Teams, 3 over 4.50 in 2011
Kylie Hutson: 4.70 PR, 18 meets in 2012, 2 over 4.50, No World Team, 8 over 4.50 in 2011
Mary Saxer: 4.62 PR, 17 meets in 2012, 3 over 4.50, World indoor Team, 4 over 4.50 in 2011
Becky Holliday: 4.62 PR, 11 meets in 2012, 2 over 4.50, Olympic Team, 8 over 4.50 in 2011
April Steiner-Bennett: 4.63 PR, 13 meets in 2012, 4 over 4.50, no world team, 0 over 4.50 in 2011

There are many other developmental woman, but I personally don't think we are jumping enough to gain the consistency and get the reps. Kylie and Mary are two of the higher competing woman and they didn't even match the number of meets shown as the average for the 4.80 meter club woman. Can anyone in 2013 jump over 4.50 near 14 times? Doing this will put them into a position to make 4.80 in 2014. Till we have a woman who can do that the chances of another 4.80 meter woman for the US is low. We need more high quality opportunities to jump so they can grow in confidence and consistency. Tiny street meets with less than world class setups are not the answer.

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby altius » Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:31 pm

A really interesting statistical analysis -good job! However if Jack Whitt doesn't jump 6.00 m in the next few years I will be greatly surprised - and become even more concerned about the future of elite vaulting in the USA. That said the mens vault in OZ is at its lowest ebb in over 30 years -so don't chip me about that!!!!
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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby KLocke » Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:44 pm

Mark Hollis could do it, if he's in the right system. A couple of guys could jump 5.80. ADTF Academy is correct to warn not to be ambitious regarding 6 meters.


altius wrote:A really interesting statistical analysis -good job! However if Jack Whitt doesn't jump 6.00 m in the next few years I will be greatly surprised - and become even more concerned about the future of elite vaulting in the USA. That said the mens vault in OZ is at its lowest ebb in over 30 years -so don't chip me about that!!!!

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby achtungpv » Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:50 pm

I see no one other than Whitt with the potential to jump 6m+. He will have to progress faster than he has in college though. Off the top of my head, I think every vaulter that has cleared 6m more than once had a PR higher than 5.80 at age 23 except for Hartwig (most were probably 5.90+ at 23). Old guys jumping 6m is pretty rare. Most have been 23-27 when they first cleared 6m. I don't know if we have the system in place any longer to support vaulters to peak in those prime years.
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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby KLocke » Sat Oct 20, 2012 2:27 am

Well, the newest 6 meter member has done at age 33

quote="achtungpv"]I see no one other than Whitt with the potential to jump 6m+. He will have to progress faster than he has in college though. Off the top of my head, I think every vaulter that has cleared 6m more than once had a PR higher than 5.80 at age 23 except for Hartwig (most were probably 5.90+ at 23). Old guys jumping 6m is pretty rare. Most have been 23-27 when they first cleared 6m. I don't know if we have the system in place any longer to support vaulters to peak in those prime years.[/quote]

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby ADTF Academy » Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:41 am

I purposely did not add college age athletes to my list. They have their own issues to contend with and that is finishing college healthy. If they can make it 2 years out of college and still be jumping I'll add them to my list.


As I said there is a hand full or more college and developmental guys who should be eyeing and aiming for a 5.80+ jump, but they have not shown the consistency to even talk 6 meters. If you can't open at 5.50 and not worry sorry you're not in this debate yet. Same on the woman's side. There are some college woman and just recent graduates who are doing great things, but till they can open 4.40 and not worry they are not in the 4.60 or 4.80 conversation.

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Re: USA List.. 6M-4.80M

Unread postby ADTF Academy » Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:56 am

achtungpv wrote:I see no one other than Whitt with the potential to jump 6m+. He will have to progress faster than he has in college though. Off the top of my head, I think every vaulter that has cleared 6m more than once had a PR higher than 5.80 at age 23 except for Hartwig (most were probably 5.90+ at 23). Old guys jumping 6m is pretty rare. Most have been 23-27 when they first cleared 6m. I don't know if we have the system in place any longer to support vaulters to peak in those prime years.


Unless the Birthdays are wrong>>>> I did not take into account birth day to day of 5.80 and 6 meter jump. I simply did year they jumped and year of birthday so these figures are not 100% accurate but paints a picture.

Average age for their first 5.80 was 23 years old. Youngest was 19 (sick). 6 did it after their 26th birthday.

Average age for their first 6 meter jump was 26 years old. Youngest was 22. 6 did it after their 28th birthday.

Unless the date of Otto is wrong it actually says he was 35 when he jumped 6 meters. Stating his birthday was in 1977.


Personally I think the opposite is true. Our system is better for late development than early. In the countries of the other 6 meter club members from a young age when you are identified as a vaulter you go into the club system with the top coaching at a National center. You become a product of your country and are supported. In the US the opposite is true. You work with a club coach in your area or your dad. You than pick a college coach. Neither of which may have the knowledge or expertise to develop a 5.80 pole vaulter. Jumping 5.50 and 5.80 are not even close to the same. Our system in the US is not set up for success at a high level before the time you graduate from college. The college system is based off scoring points at conference and nationals not long term development.

According to TrackandFieldNews.com
These are the only college vaulters to jump 5.80+

Lawrence Johnson never jumped 6 meters
Jacob Davis never jumped 6 meters
Bill Payne never jumped 6 meters
Joe Dial never jumped 6 meters
Russ Buller never jumped 6 meters
Jim Davis never jumped 6 meters
Tommy Skipper never jumped 6 meters
Brad Walker jumped 6 meters

The US has had only 8 guys in college ever jump over 5.80 and only 1 of them ever made it to 6 meters. The US has 4 members of the 6 meter club. Only 25% jumped 5.80 in college. I'd say that shows our system is built on late development not college development. I wish Whitt, Irwin, LeLuex, and many of the 5.50 and 4.40 woman the best of luck. I'll see them after college cause unless they have a college coach who cares more about their development and less about conference and NCAA titles even if they jump high enough they could become part of the 5.80 in college never to jump 6 meter club. I will agree from all my conversations with Jack's coach I believe he is setting him up for long term development. Time will tell if he can bend the poles needed to jump 5.80 and 6 meters.

Till we see another 5.80 jump in college and give them 3 to 6 years after that to hit 6 meters I think the safer bet is the older guys who can stick around long enough. Its not like it once was. There isn't meets ever 4th day especially not of any quality here in the US. For a none medal contender you may have to wait weeks before your next high quality start. The costs and lack of money to go to Europe is detrimental towards building momentum. It was interesting looking at the data and noticing a pattern. All the top marks happened at basically the same venues year in and out. Venues we tend to not jump at. As a coach I have a list of roughly 10 venues around the world I want to get my athlete too because those are the places where everyone in the meet jumps really high. If you don't get to that venue than your chances of jumping high are less IMO.


As a coach of an athlete working towards the 4.80 club and past coach of an athlete who is aiming for the 6 meters it comes down to the simple truth. If you can't get into enough high quality meets to get on a roll the likelihood of finding that awe awe moment is reduced. Who is your agent becomes as or more important in International Pole Vault today than what your doing in training. Sad but true. Technique is vitally important but the math behind it isn't rocket science. Do you have the technique to grip high enough and to get on a stiff enough poles to your body weight to get enough push off the top to first make 5.80 or 4.60 than can you find an extra 20 more centimeters to clear 6 meters and 4.80. Can you grow the consistency to jump 4.50 and 5.70 every meet so you're consistently taking shots at 6 meters and 4.80. If you get only one chance at it a year odds are you won't make it. If you get 16 shots at it than you will probably get it to stay up once a year. Like anything 12' seems high till you make it. 5.50 seems so hard till you do it. 5.80 seems like a mountain to climb till you do it. From the guys and woman I have talked to once they became part of the 6 meter and 4.80 club to them it was just another height and only thing that matter was the WR.

Till we have more athletes with the technique to get on the poles able to take them over the numbers provided talking 6 meters and 4.80 is just a waste of time. Right now I don't think we have enough athletes who meet that criteria male or female.


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